西溪书社

So, let me thank you for the opportunity to talk about the biggest international story of your professional lifetime, which is also the most important international challenge the world will face for as far as the eye can see.

首先，感谢大家给予我此次机会来分享这样一个， 在诸位职业生涯中遇到的最大的国际故事，同时也是我们目前能够预见到的最重要的国际化挑战。

00:17
The story, of course, is the rise of China. Never before have so many people risen so far so fast, on so many different dimensions. The challenge is the impact of China’s rise — the discombobulation this will cause the Unites States and the international order, of which the US has been the principal architect and guardian. The past 100 years have been what historians now call an “American Century.” Americans have become accustomed to their place at the top of every pecking order. So the very idea of another country that could be as big and strong as the US — or bigger — strikes many Americans as an assault on who they are.

我们故事毫无疑问是关于中国的崛起。在此之前，从未有过如此多的人群，在如此广泛的维度，如此快的崛起。这个挑战就是中国崛起的影响，以及中国崛起对美国和国际秩序引起的改变，而这些国际秩序，美国一直都是其监护人和掌舵者。历史学家称呼过去100年为“美利坚的世纪”，美国人已经习惯于他们在任何一个领域处于领先位置，所以，如果有另外一个国家成长为和美国一样大，一样强壮甚至比美国更大时，这种想法就会刺激或刺痛到很多美国人。

01:06
For perspective on what we’re now seeing in this rivalry, it’s useful to locate it on the larger map of history. The past 500 years have seen 16 cases in which a rising power threatened to displace a ruling power. Twelve of those ended in war. So just in November, we’ll all pause to mark the 100th anniversary of the final day of a war that became so encompassing, that it required historians to create an entirely new category: world war. So, on the 11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th month in 1918, the guns of World War I fell silent, but 20 million individuals lay dead.
对于当前的竞争，很有必要将其置于历史长河中来看待，这样的方法大有裨益。在过去的500年中，出现过16次新兴力量威胁旧的统治力量的情况，其中12次以战争结束。历史学家们对世界战争创建了一个新的活动，那就是在11月份我们都会停来下纪念某一个战争最后一天的100周年，所以，在1918年，11月第11天的第11个小时，第一次世界大战的枪声停止了，但是2000万人却死于该战争。

02:00
I know that this is a sophisticated audience, so you know about the rise of China. I’m going to focus, therefore, on the impact of China’s rise, on the US, on the international order and on the prospects for war and peace. But having taught at Harvard over many years, I’ve learned that from time to time, it’s useful to take a short pause, just to make sure we’re all on the same page. The way I do this is, I call a time-out, I give students a pop quiz — ungraded, of course. So, let’s try this. Time-out, pop quiz.
我知道我们在座有经验丰富的听众，所以，你们知道中国的崛起。因此，我将要重点讲述中国的崛起，对于美国，对于世界秩序，对于未来战争或者和平的预期影响。在哈佛大学教书多年，我知道，在开始话题之前，我得确保我们首先要能形成共识，在同一个起点。这个我方法我称之为稍息，同场以此方式来进行突击测试。虽然有点卑略，但是还是让我们开始吧，突击测试开始。

02:34
Question: forty years ago, 1978, China sets out on its march to the market. At that point, what percentage of China’s one billion citizens were struggling to survive on less than two dollars a day? Take a guess — 25 percent? Fifty? Seventy-five? Ninety. What do you think? Ninety. Nine out of every 10 on less than two dollars a day. Twenty eighteen, 40 years later. What about the numbers? What’s your bet? Take a look. Fewer than one in 100 today. And China’s president has promised that within the next three years, those last tens of millions will have been raised up above that threshold. So it’s a miracle, actually, in our lifetime. Hard to believe. But brute facts are even harder to ignore. A nation that didn’t even appear on any of the international league tables 25 years ago has soared, to rival — and in some areas, surpass — the United States.

问题是：四十年前的1978年，中国开始进入市场经济，在那个时候，大家可以猜下，中国的十亿人口中有多少百分比的人处于每天不到2美元收入的水位，为生存挣扎着？ 可以猜下，25%？50%？75%？90%，你会想到什么，是的，百分之九十，十个人中有九个人的日收入不超过2美元。但是到了2018年，40年后，这个数字是什么样昵？您的赌注是什么？大家可以看到，到今天，这个数字是不到1%。并且中国的主席承诺，在未来的3年，这些剩余的贫困人口将能够生活并且度过瓶颈。所以，事实上这在我们的人生中见闻中可以说一个奇迹。很难相信，但是越残忍的事实，越难被忽略。一个在25年前还未坐上国际联盟谈判桌的民族已经开始快速上升，开始与美国竞争，甚至在某些方面已经超越了美国。

03:54
Thus, the challenge that will shape our world: a seemingly unstoppable rising China accelerating towards an apparently immovable ruling US, on course for what could be the grandest collision in history. To help us get our minds around this challenge, I’m going to introduce you to a great thinker, I’m going to present a big idea, and I’m going to pose a most consequential question. The great thinker is Thucydides. Now, I know his name is a mouthful, and some people have trouble pronouncing it. So, let’s do it, one, two, three, together: Thucydides. One more time: Thucydides.

因此，这个挑战将会塑造我们的世界：一个表面上停不下来崛起的中国，加速的靠近一个很明显不可动摇的美国，这个挑战将可能引起世界上最庄重的冲突。为了让大家能够理解这个挑战，我将会给大家介绍一个伟大的思想家，我将要表达一个伟大的想法，同时我也将间接推出一些相应的问题。这个伟大的思想家是 Thucydides，现在我知道他的名字不好念，而且有些人有拼读问题，所以让我们一起来，一二三，一起来： Thucydides，再来一次 Thucydides

04:39
So who was Thucydides? He was the father and founder of history. He wrote the first-ever history book. It’s titled “The History of the Peloponnesian War,” about the war in Greece, 2500 years ago. So if nothing else today, you can tweet your friends, “I met a great thinker. And I can even pronounce his name: Thucydides.” So, about this war that destroyed classical Greece, Thucydides wrote famously: “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made the war inevitable.” So the rise of one and the reaction of the other create a toxic cocktail of pride, arrogance, paranoia, that drug them both to war.
谁是 Thycydides 呢？ 他是历史学之父和创立者。他编写了第一本历史书，书名是《伯罗奔尼撒战争史》，是一本关于2500年前希腊战争的书籍。所以，如果你今天没什么事情，可以发推特给你的朋友告诉他：我遇到一个伟大的思想家，并且我可以读出来他的名字：Thucydides. 书中提到的这次战争摧毁了古希腊，正如其中的知名章节说到的：雅典的崛起和斯巴达带来的源源不断的威胁让这场战争不可避免。所以，正是一个国家的崛起和另外一个国家对此的反应，一起调制了这杯有毒的自大，骄傲而又带有妄想的毒鸡尾酒，从而把两个国家都带向了战争。

05:38
Which brings me to the big idea: Thucydides’s Trap. “Thucydides’s Trap” is a term I coined several years ago, to make vivid Thucydides’s insight. Thucydides’s Trap is the dangerous dynamic that occurs when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, like Athens — or Germany 100 years ago, or China today — and their impact on Sparta, or Great Britain 100 years ago, or the US today. As Henry Kissinger has said, once you get this idea, this concept of Thucydides’s Trap in your head, it will provide a lens for helping you look through the news and noise of the day to understand what’s actually going on.
是什么让我有了这个伟大的主意呢：是 Thucydides 的陷阱-这个名词是我几年前为了清晰表达 Thucydides 的观点而发明的。确切来说： Thucydides 陷阱是一种危险态势，这种态势发生在一个新兴势力将要替换一个统治势力时，比如雅典或者100年前的德国，或者今天的中国。这些新兴力量影响了斯巴达，100年前的大英帝国或者今天的美国。正如亨利·基辛格所述：一旦你在头脑中有了 Thucydides陷阱这个概念，它将会给你提供一个望远镜，让你透过今日的新闻和声音来洞察和理解什么将要发生。

06:28
So, to the most consequential question about our world today: Are we going to follow in the footsteps of history? Or can we, through a combination of imagination and common sense and courage find a way to manage this rivalry without a war nobody wants, and everybody knows would be catastrophic ? Give me five minutes to unpack this, and later this afternoon, when the next news story pops up for you about China doing this, or the US reacting like that, you will be able to have a better understanding of what’s going on and even to explain it to your friends.

所以，回到世界上今天最可能发生的问题上来：我们将会重蹈历史的覆辙吗？或者，我们可以通过想象力，共同认知和勇气来管理好这个无人期待，所有人都明白会很惨痛的战争吗？请给我5分钟来阐述这点。然后在今天下午，当关于中国做了什么，美国如何反应的新的新闻报告出来时，你将会对于未来将要发生什么有一个更好地理解，甚至解释给你的朋友听。

07:15
So as we saw with this flipping the pyramid of poverty, China has actually soared. It’s meteoric. Former Czech president, Vaclav Havel, I think, put it best. He said, “All this has happened so fast, we haven’t yet had time to be astonished.”
所以，正如我们看到的那个贫困金字塔所示，中国实际上已经崛起了。中国的崛起是如此之快，正如前杰克主席 Vaclav Havel 所说的（我想这是最好的表述）：所有一切发生的如此之快，以至于我们甚至没有时间去感到震惊。

07:32
(Laughter)

07:34
To remind myself how astonished I should be, I occasionally look out the window in my office in Cambridge at this bridge, which goes across the Charles River, between the Kennedy School and Harvard Business School. In 2012, the State of Massachusetts said they were going to renovate this bridge, and it would take two years. In 2014, they said it wasn’t finished. In 2015, they said it would take one more year. In 2016, they said it’s not finished, we’re not going to tell you when it’s going to be finished. Finally, last year, it was finished — three times over budget.
为了提醒我自己我应该表示如何的震惊，我时不时的从我剑桥的办公室透过窗户向外观看这座桥，它跨国查尔斯河，在肯尼迪学院和哈佛商学院之间。在2012年马萨诸塞州政府说他们他将要用两年时间来维修这座桥，在2014年他们说该工程还未结束，在2015年他们说该工程还需要1年时间，在 2016年他们说还未结束，并且也不会告知什么时候会结束。终于在去年，这个工程结束了，耗费了3倍多的预算。

08:10
Now, compare this to a similar bridge that I drove across last month in Beijing. It’s called the Sanyuan Bridge. In 2015, the Chinese decided they wanted to renovate that bridge. It actually has twice as many lanes of traffic. How long did it take for them to complete the project? Twenty fifteen, what do you bet? Take a guess — OK, three — Take a look.
然后，让我们来对比一个相似的桥，这个桥在中国，我上个月刚刚开车经过，他的名字叫 三元桥，在 2015年，中国政府决定重修三元桥，车道翻倍。他们花了多久完成这个工程？201年，大家猜测一下，看一下答案。

08:40
(Laughter)

08:48
The answer is 43 hours.
答案是 43 个小时。

08:50
(Audience: Wow!)
听众： 哇哦

08:56
(Laughter)

09:04
Graham Allison: Now, of course, that couldn’t happen in New York.
毫无疑问，这在纽约不可能发生。

09:07
(Laughter)

09:09
Behind this speed in execution is a purpose-driven leader and a government that works. The most ambitious and most competent leader on the international stage today is Chinese President Xi Jinping. And he’s made no secret about what he wants. As he said when he became president six years ago, his goal is to make China great again —
在这个速度之后，是目标驱动型的领导和政府在起作用。在当今国际化舞台上，中国主席习-近-平是最具有上进心和才干的领导。而且他并没有保密任何他想要做的事情，在6年前他就任中国主席之时，就设定了目标 – 让中国再次伟大复兴。

09:34
(Laughter)

09:36
a banner he raised long before Donald Trump picked up a version of this. To that end, Xi Jinping has announced specific targets for specific dates: 2025, 2035, 2049.
特朗普同样树立了一个类似的梦想，在习近平之后很久。朝着这个梦想，习近平声明了三个时间点的三个阶段目标： 2025 年， 2035 年和 2049年。

09:54
By 2025, China means to be the dominant power in the major market in 10 leading technologies, including driverless cars, robots, artificial intelligence, quantum computing. By 2035, China means to be the innovation leader across all the advanced technologies. And by 2049, which is the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic, China means to be unambiguously number one, including, [says] Xi Jinping, an army that he calls “Fight and Win.” So these are audacious goals, but as you can see, China is already well on its way to these objectives. And we should remember how fast our world is changing. Thirty years ago, the World Wide Web had not yet even been invented. Who will feel the impact of this rise of China most directly? Obviously, the current number one. As China gets bigger and stronger and richer, technologically more advanced, it will inevitably bump up against American positions and prerogatives.

在 2025年前，中国目标是在10个领先技术方面处于主导力量，包括：无人驾驶，机器人，人工智能和量子计算。到 2035年前，中国目标是在高科技领域，处于改革领袖位置。然后在 2049年前，也就是中国建国100周年之时，中国要毫无争议的成为世界第一，习近平所说，一个敢打且必胜的军队。这是一些无畏或者鲁莽的目标，但是正如我们所看到的，中国已经很好的处在迈向这些目标的路上了。我们应该铭记这世界变化的是如何之快。三十年前，互联网还未被发明。谁最新直接的感受到中国的崛起带来的影响？很显然，就是当前的第一名。当中国变的越来越大，越来越强大，越来越富有，技术上更加领先时，毫无以为会影响到美国的位置和特权。

11:11
Now, for red-blooded Americans — and especially for red-necked Americans like me; I’m from North Carolina — there’s something wrong with this picture. The USA means number one, that’s who we are. But again, to repeat: brute facts are hard to ignore. Four years ago, Senator John McCain asked me to testify about this to his Senate Armed Services Committee. And I made for them a chart that you can see, that said, compare the US and China to kids on opposite ends of a seesaw on a playground, each represented by the size of their economy. As late as 2004, China was just half our size. By 2014, its GDP was equal to ours. And on the current trajectory, by 2024, it will be half again larger. The consequences of this tectonic change will be felt everywhere.

对于精力充沛的美国人，特别是像我这样红脖子的美国人来说，我来自北卡罗莱那州 – 这幅图片中有些错误。对于美国人来说，美国意味着第一名，这就是我们。但是，再一次我要重述：残酷的实事往往不可忽略。 四年前，约翰·麦肯恩议员邀请我把这些内容证明给他的参议院军事委会人员看，我给他们作了一幅你们现在看到的图片，图片告诉我们：美国和中国就像坐在跷跷板两端的孩童，每一方代表了各自的经济体量。早在2004年，中国的经济体只是我们的一半，到了2014年，经济体量等同于美国，按照现在的轨迹，到2014年他会增大一半，这种改变带来的影响在任何地方都将能感受到。

12:15
For example, in the current trade conflict, China is already the number one trading partner of all the major Asian countries. Which brings us back to our Greek historian. Harvard’s “Thucydides’s Trap Case File” has reviewed the last 500 years of history and found 16 cases in which a rising power threatened to displace a ruling power. Twelve of these ended in war. And the tragedy of this is that in very few of these did either of the protagonists want a war; few of these wars were initiated by either the rising power or the ruling power.
例如，在当前的贸易摩擦中，中国已然成为了亚洲国家贸易合作伙伴的第一位。这个事实把我们带回到了希腊的历史中。哈佛大学的“修昔底德陷阱案件档案”浏览了过去500年中的16个关于崛起力量威胁统治力量的案例，其中12个以战争结束。悲剧的是，很少有双方愿意以一场战争来收场，其中很少的一部分战争是由崛起方或者统治方发起的。

12:59
So how does this work? What happens is, a third party’s provocation forces one or the other to react, and that sets in motion a spiral, which drags the two somewhere they don’t want to go. If that seems crazy, it is. But it’s life. Remember World War I. The provocation in that case was the assassination of a second-level figure, Archduke Franz Ferdinand, which then led the Austro-Hungarian emperor to issue an ultimatum to Serbia, they dragged in the various allies, within two months, all of Europe was at war.
所以，这些战争怎么发生的呢？发生的事情是：第三方挑拨势力激起了其中的一方开始做出响应。这个挑拨转动了战争的陀螺，从而把双发拉入了都不愿介入的境地，看起来很疯狂是吧，是的，这就是生活。记得一战吧。导火索是二号人物费迪南的遇刺事件，该事件引起了奥匈帝国国王队塞尔维亚发起的最后通牒，他们拉入了同盟国，在两个月内，整个欧洲陷入了战争中。

13:42
So imagine if Thucydides were watching planet Earth today. What would he say? Could he find a more appropriate leading man for the ruling power than Donald J Trump?
所以，想象下，如果修昔底德斯今天正注视着地球，他会说什么？他会寻找比特朗普更合适的统治力量一方的领导人吗？

13:55
(Laughter)
大笑

13:56
Or a more apt lead for the rising power than Xi Jinping? And he would scratch his head and certainly say he couldn’t think of more colorful provocateur than North Korea’s Kim Jong-un. Each seems determined to play his assigned part and is right on script.
或者说一个比习近平更合适的崛起一方领导人吗？修昔底德斯会闹着头皮确切的说他找不到比北朝鲜领导人金正恩更合适和绚丽多彩的挑衅者了。每个人似乎都下定决心要扮演好自己的角色，剧本也写的很好。

14:21
So finally, we conclude again with the most consequential question, the question that will have the gravest consequences for the rest of our lives: Are Americans and Chinese going to let the forces of history drive us to a war that would be catastrophic for both? Or can we summon the imagination and courage to find a way to survive together, to share the leadership in the 21st century, or, as Xi Jinping [said], to create a new form of great power relations?
所以，让我们再次以最重要的问题来总结，这个问题将会对我们的余生形成最大的影响：美国和中国将会让历史的力量把我们驱向对双方都惨痛而残忍的战争吗？或者说我们是否能够召唤我们的想象力和勇气，寻找一条生存之路，来分享21实际的领导权，正如习主席所说的：创造一种新形式的大国关系。

14:56
That’s the issue I’ve been pursuing passionately for the last two years. I’ve had the opportunity to talk and, indeed, to listen to leaders of all the relevant governments — Beijing, Washington, Seoul, Tokyo — and to thought leaders across the spectrum of both the arts and business. I wish I had more to report. The good news is that leaders are increasingly aware of this Thucydidean dynamic and the dangers that it poses. The bad news is that nobody has a feasible plan for escaping history as usual.
这正是我过去两年在热情探寻的问题。我有机会去对话和聆听两个政府的领袖-北京，华盛顿，首尔和东京。- 以及艺术和商业领域的精神领袖。我期望我可以做更多的报告。好消息是，领袖们正在加速意识到修昔底德斯动态以及它带来的危险。坏消息是，像往常一样没有任何一方有一个可行的可以逃脱历史规律的方案。

15:31
So it’s clear to me that we need some ideas outside the box of conventional state graph — indeed, from another page or another space — which is what brings me to TED today and which brings me to a request. This audience includes many of the most creative minds on the planet, who get up in the morning and think not only about how to manage the world we have, but how to create worlds that should be. So I’m hopeful that as this sinks in and as you reflect on it, some of you are going to have some bold ideas, actually some wild ideas, that when we find, will make a difference in this space. And just to remind you if you do, this won’t be the first time.

所以，很清晰的是，我们需要有些脱离传统状态图的类似他山之石的新的想法，这些想法真正发自于从另一方向或者另外一个空间。正是这个问题把我带到TED来，并让我提出关于该问题的这个请求。在坐的当中有这个星球上最具创造力想法的人，你们早晨起床后不仅思考如何管理我们所拥有的世界，并且在考虑如何把世界创造成它应有的样子。所以我满怀希望，随着问题深入，随着你们的思考，你们当中有人会产生一些大胆的想法，甚至一些疯狂的想法，当我们找到时，这些想法会对当前的生存空间起到作用。所以提醒大家，如果你这样做，这将不会是第一次。
16:20
Let me remind you of what happened right after World War II. A remarkable group of Americans and Europeans and others, not just from government, but from the world of culture and business, engaged in a collective surge of imagination. And what they imagined and what they created was a new international order, the order that’s allowed you and me to live our lives, all of our lives, without great power war and with more prosperity than was ever seen before on the planet. So, a remarkable story. Interestingly, every pillar of this project that produced these results, when first proposed, was rejected by the foreign policy establishment as naive or unrealistic.

让我来提醒大家二战结束后发生了什么，一批优秀卓越的美国人，欧洲人和其他地方的人。不止来自政界，还来自文化和商界，投入到了大风大浪的构思中去了。他们所构思和所创造的是一个新的社会秩序。这个秩序允许你和我，允许我们大家都能够生存，并且在这个星球上比以往任何时候都没有大国战争，并且更繁荣。所以这是一个卓越而有趣的故事。这个工程中的每一个支柱都能够产生结果，而在一开始被建议时，经常被外景政策制定公司认为是太幼稚或者不现实。

17:09
My favorite is the Marshall Plan. After World War II, Americans felt exhausted. They had demobilized 10 million troops, they were focused on an urgent domestic agenda. But as people began to appreciate how devastated Europe was and how aggressive Soviet communism was, Americans eventually decided to tax themselves a percent and a half of GDP every year for four years and send that money to Europe to help reconstruct these countries, including Germany and Italy, whose troops had just been killing Americans. Amazing. This also created the United Nations. Amazing. The Universal Declaration of Human Rights. The World Bank. NATO. All of these elements of an order for peace and prosperity. So, in a word, what we need to do is do it again. And I think now we need a surge of imagination, creativity, informed by history, for, as the philosopher Santayana reminded us, in the end, only those who refuse to study history are condemned to repeat it.

我的爱好是马歇尔计划，在二战后，美国人感觉到精力耗尽。他们解散了 1000万的军队。他们聚焦于紧急的国内计划上，在人们开始感叹欧洲是如何破败而苏维埃共产主义是如何进取的时候，美国人最终决定给自己加收一个点的税，并且连续四年拿出每年一半的GDP，来把这些钱送到欧洲帮助他们重建家园。包括德国和意大利，而这些国家的士兵，在刚结束的战争中曾杀死美国人。令人惊讶，这点也创造了美利坚合众国。震惊，普世的人权宣言，世界银行，北大西洋公约组织。所有这些都是为了建立一个和平而繁荣的秩序。所以，简而言之，我们要做的就是再一次做这些事情。所以，我想我们现在需要想象力，创造力，参考历史，正如哲学家萨塔亚娜提醒我们的，最终那些拒绝从历史中学习的人主要定重蹈历史的覆辙。

18:25
Thank you.

谢谢。