郁离子78~81笔记

78:《捕鼠》:

有鼠为患,养猫捕之,猫虽捕鼠,亦实鸡,鼠尽,鸡亦尽。然鼠患会致人生活不可继续,而鸡无,最多不吃鸡肉。孰轻孰重,自然要分开,所以接受了养猫的决定。主要矛盾,次要矛盾要分清楚。

79:《使贪》

从吴起贪婪的故事讲起。实则是用人之道,生存之道。有才之人,最受君王/领导重视,想设法致之,为我所用,而人若无缺点:贪婪,好色,好玩,低俗。则无可致之处,会令君王无踏实安全之感,反倒引火上身。所以王剪,萧何等聪明之人,在受大用之时,都表现出贪鄙之心,以安君王。目的是让君王放心,以示臣下无二心,或者无更高志向,不构成危机。

80: 《去蠹(du)》:

做人做事,要勤查身边或者自身可能致命的缺点和问题,及时防微杜渐,以免引起灾难或者杀身之祸。比如检查
自己的性格特点,读书改进。检查身体有无异恙,提前诊治,以免引发大病。

91:《螇螰:xilu,蝉的一种》

对人/对合作方:要宏观评估其大势和潜力,不可居于危房下,不可和恶者做邻居或者朋友,不可依赖于将亡之企业或者组织。
对己:闲时多反思自身,不要骄横无礼,以免引起祸端。

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郁离子71-《致人之道》

或问致人之道,郁离子曰:

道致贤,食致民,湍致鱼,薮致兽,林致鸟,臭致蝇,利致贾。故善致物者,各以其所好致之,则天下无不可致者也。

是故不患其有所不至,而患其有所不安,能致而不能安,不如不致之无伤也。

粤人有学致鬼者,三年得其术。于是壇其室之北隅以集鬼,鬼至而多,无以食,则相率以为妖,声闻于外。

一夕,其人死而爇其室,邻里莫不笑之。

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【收藏】来自于Mac的投资建议分享

我的2021年的投资策略。
两个组合:全天候+价值投资,但会把资金大量倾向价值投资。

全天候方面,月初进行了再平衡,配置作轻微调整:
1、股票估值在高位,低配股票
2. 美国长期国债利率上升压力很大(已经没有什么下降空间了+有经济复苏预期),对股票的对冲作用减弱,低配国债
总的来说,我2021最担心的系统性风险是市场利率上升。这一方面会杀股票估值,另一方面国债也会下跌,股债不仅不会对冲还会共振。不过全天候的核心其实是无论你预期如何,都不要做大的调整,以不变应万变。

我今年在全天候上投入了30%的资金。后面的操作也很简单,明年年初再平衡一次就行了。


接下去说说价值投资组合。这部分我作了一些调整,投入了70%的资金,和公司的投资策略比较接近了,也方便我后面直接把这部分投资转入公司管理的基金。

去年年底, 我对公司的投资策略做了一下总结,归纳为“三级价投体系”,在方法论上做了一些细化,今年我按这个思路做我个人的股票投资。下面聊聊这个三级价投体系。

投资目标

长期投资其实是对未来认知的变现。对未来商业、行业发展趋势的判断是核心,是战略问题,这个做得对不对,决定了我们的基本盘。我们的核心目标是能够抓住一些未来3-10年比较大的趋势。剩下的操作策略都是战术问题,锦上添花,提高一点收益率。

具体到我个人的投资业绩目标,我仍然是以控制回撤为基本前提,因为这是我的全部身家,我一家子生活的钱,稳字优先。那么,这里就有一个矛盾了。投资未来成长股,通常有较高的预期收益,同时也有较高的风险。所以,风险的控制依然是我2021年的核心操作策略。总结起来,我希望2021年在有效控制风险的前提下,仍然能抓住大的市场机会(假如有的话,没有不强求)。简单说:损失有限,收益无限。 当然,没有既要高收益又低风险的好事情,一定是有代价的。我会花一些成本在控制风险上,当市场表现平淡的时候,这个成本会大幅拉低我的投资回报,这是我可以接受的。当我抓住了大的市场机会的时候,这个成本就不值一提了。

投资需要一套完整的系统

我现在越来越信奉价值投资,但是具体怎么做,还是需要思考一番的。普通散户和职业投资者比较大的差别是在投资的系统化上,这就造成了投资业绩的不稳定。我是比较追求基于一套稳定的投资逻辑做决策的,而不是拍脑袋。因此,我进公司以来,一直在迭代我们的投资系统。 所谓投资系统就是要在逻辑上说明:买什么?怎么买?买入之后怎么办?

买什么?

既然是投资长期趋势,我的选股是从趋势的识别开始的。我把趋势分成三级,确定性不同,资金分配比重不同:

选股上,我基本上还是价值投资那一套,以理解公司的商业模式和护城河为核心,做定性判断。我也很喜欢做财务和业务数据分析,但是数据分析主要是用来验证判断而非选股的指标。财务指标上,我们主要看成长性、盈利能力和财务健康方面的指标,但不同Tier的公司,关注点有所不同。

关于趋势的判断,站在2021年年初这个时间点,在我的能力圈范围内,我认为互联网对传统行业的颠覆符合我对T1的定义。当然,不同的细分赛道有些不同,有些赛道还在T2的阶段。
过去10年,互联网极大地改造了人类的生活方式。最近听到一个词叫“线上城市化”,我觉得很贴切。腾讯、阿里、谷歌、FB、亚马逊、苹果、微软这些公司,不像传统的商业公司,更像是线上世界的一种利益共同体组织形式,他们建设线上城市的基础设施,类似线上的地方政府。在完成基础设施建设之后,他们就开始给线上的商业活动收税了。这些公司的力量十分强大,大到了影响线下政府地位的程度,以至于去年年底,全世界都反垄断。这个进程,中国走的是最快的,美国次之,但是还有很多地方才刚开始。我觉得线上城市化在未来10年依然会在全世界推进,我会关注那些在copy中美巨头的其它地区的地头蛇。已经成长起来的巨头,虽然会面临各种政府的打压,但是仍然具有十分稳定的赚钱能力,他们提供的服务会渐渐变成和水电气一样你离不开又感觉不到存在的东西,成为新商业时代的背景。唯一的问题是在中国这种线上城市化率非常高的国家,基础设施大跃进的时代红利快没有了。因此应用层会变得越来越重要,能够利用新线上基础设施解决实际生活痛点需求的公司会有很好的前景。这些巨头们也会投入这些应用的开发,以保持增长。 互联网的细分赛道上,我一直比较关注的包括:基础服务(社交、搜索)、商品和服务平台、云计算(各层面)、在线教育、自媒体

此外,我还看好AI对各行各业的改造,那是下一个类似互联网的东西,目前在从T3到T2的阶段。

我现在的股票配置如下,后面会做一些调整。

怎么买?

在确定了投资标的和资金分配之后,就是具体如何操作的的问题了。价值投资强调估值,强调留有安全边际。但是实践中,尤其是对于成长股的投资,很多估值技术是会失效的,我觉得对于公司的定性判断也十分重要。只要符合未来的发展趋势,商业模式我看得懂,我就会买。因此,所有的投资标的,无论贵不贵,我先一次性建仓50%。 剩下的50%,就交给估值去决定了。

估值是价值投资的关键思维模式,我觉得最终估的准不准是个概率问题,但是做估值是帮助你理解公司的重要方式。估值的核心是理解未来现金流,要理解未来现金流,必须很清楚公司的业务和商业模式。我们通常两种思路做估值:一个是直接估算未来现金流,所谓DCF模型。另一个是通过各种比率去间接估值,传统的如P/E, P/S。 我个人更偏好用Operating Cash Flow的倍数去估值,这个倍数通过横向和纵向比较确定。倍数法估值我通常也是估计5年后公司的现金流正常应该是多少,然后再计算5年后值多少钱,然后再折现。 做过估值你会发现,其实利率水平(和折现率相关)对公司的估值影响非常大,理解这点非常重要。

我每个季度财报发布之后,都会对持仓的公司做一遍估值更新,不仅自己算一算,也会看看行业内的估值报告。有了估值之后,操作思路是:
1. 低估的股票:把剩下的50%直接买买满。 现在科技股普遍贵,这种情况不多。
2. 高估的股票:用50%的资金额度,去做sell put, 等待一个我认为合适的价格。Sell Put的合约期限,我是按隐市场波动率来确定的,波动率高(对应的期权费就高),我就会做比较长期的sell put,锁定波动率。通常sell put可以把闲置的资金利用起来,也有10%左右的年华收益。如果市场大跌,跌破你设置的价格,刚好被动抄底股票。去年,这是一个挺有效的策略。我估值也比较保守,所以通常股票都不会满仓,大部分股票在我眼中都是偏贵的。这让我长时间有一笔闲置资金做做sell put, 这样市场有大的波动,我的回撤也不会很大。

期权有很多复杂的模型,可以做得很深入,这也是我今年学习的重点之一。但是简单理解sell put的含义,我觉得也够一般应用。我在这个价值投资策略里,不会裸卖put, 合约的规模一定是在我想要建仓的规模之内的。

买入之后怎么办?

每年年初建完仓之后,剩下的一年就是跟踪监控各种风险了。 对于风险的管理,我是分三个层次去做的:
1. 资产配置层面,自己对宏观经济有个大致判断,然后决定股票、债券、黄金、现金的比例,这是一个以股票为主的价值投资组合,所以其它部分可以调配的空间并不大,但还是会做一下配置的,我一般会至少配置10%的黄金等其它资产,这是投资组合理论告诉我们的免费的午餐。

  1. 一些系统性风险敞口的管理。我这里最关注的是利率风险和汇率风险。2021年,我最担心的就是利率上升,这对我投资的股票的估值会有很大影响。这个风险敞口如何对冲掉,我还没找到特别好的方案,目前正在和我们合作的投行讨论一些可能的方案。 我投资美元资产为主,受美元澳元汇率影响挺大的,所以我今年开始对冲掉大部分美元部位。 股市的系统性风险,我是通过buy put来保护的。比如我长期买QQQ(纳斯达克指数)的put,以防止市场黑天鹅造成的暴跌。通常我会在恐慌指数特别低的时候买put,这个时候put价格最便宜,比如现在。 这个策略的成本挺高的,但是可以确保我不会有大的亏损。其实不太在意回撤的,也可以不需要花这笔钱。

  2. 个股的风险管理。这个首先是定期review基本面,符合我的投资标准就长期持有,不符合就换股。这个review一般都是每个季度财报发布的时候做的。另外,就是更新估值。基于估值再看看手上的票贵不贵。对于已经满仓又很贵的股票,我会适当降低仓位(但至少留50%),或者sell call. 另外,我会定期对持仓做再平衡。这个操作,也可以修复估值上的错误,被动低买高卖。

在我的投资策略里,卖出一般是一个被动行为,很少会主动卖出一支股票。总结下来,卖出一支股票的情况有如下几种:
1. 公司不再是我眼中的好公司,买入理由不成立。这种情况我是清仓换股。
2. 已经满仓的股票,估值又特别贵,会卖掉一部分仓位。这里的特别贵是指超过我的估值100%以上而且我不太理解为什么这么贵。更多的时候,这种涨很多的股票,我是留到再平衡的时候去处理的。
3. 每季度再平衡一次,会被动做一些买卖,恢复到原先配置的比例。
4. 需要钱的时候,我会按比例卖出股票。我通常只有买房之类的要花大钱的时候,才会从我的投资里取现,这种情况,我不会卖某只股票,而是全部股票按配置比例卖。

Posted in 他山之石 | 【收藏】来自于Mac的投资建议分享已关闭评论

mysql几个常用知识【2007-11-20 19:14:22】

(1)一般情况下,我们在后台直接访问数据库的机会很少,大多数时间都是通过工具如mysqladmin或者phpadmin远程访问mysql数据库服务器的,以mysqladmin为例。
如果想从192.168.1.102上以cme身份访问192.168.1.10上的mysql数据库服务,那么就需要在数据库服务器上添加这个账户。
首先,登录数据库后台:
mysql -uroot -plinuxmysql
登录到数据库提示符,然后创建cme用户,指定主机为192.168.1.102,从192.168.1.102以cme用户名登录到这台数据库服务器的密码为‘windowsmysql’,如下:
mysql>CREATE USER cme@192.168.1.102 IDENTIFIED BY ‘windowsmysql’;
mysql>exit;
这个时候,在192.168.1.102上用mysqladmin连接192.168.1.10上的mysql服务,默认端口为3306,不需要修改。
我们可以看到,很快就连接上了,如果有问题请检查防火墙设置等问题。
然后,右键创建数据库,你会发现弹出对话框提示不能创建,因为还没有给cme分配数据库的操作权限,所以下来需要给cme@192.168.1.102分配权限。
mysql>GRANT CREATE ON . TO cme@192.168.1.102 WITH GRANT OPTION;
给cme@192.168.1.102分配了create database的权限,然后我们退出mysqladmin后再次用mysqladmin连接上,创建数据库,成功,相应的,如果你还想使得在cme@192.168.1.102访问数据库时拥有跟多权限,就需要给它grant跟多的操作,如INSERT, DROP, UPDAE等。ON ‘数据库’表示对某个数据库的操作。
一般都是分配所有的权限,比如
mysql > GRANT ALL PRIVILEGES ON . TO cme@192.168.1.102 WITH GRANT OPTION
这样cme@192.168.1.102登录到192.168.1.10上的数据库后就能进行任何操作了。
如果你想在任何机子上都能登录数据库服务器并进行操作,可以如下写:
mysql>RANT ALL PRIVILEGES ON . TO cme@”%” [IDENTIFIED BY ‘windowsmysql’] WITH GRANT OPTION
如果已经设置了密码就没有必要再写上[IDENTIFIED BY ’windowsmysql’]了。
然后就可以尽情的访问了
一般情况下需要以root超级用户登录到数据库上设置其他超级用户的权限。
所以,我的数据库一般都设置为
mysql>
mysql>RANT ALL PRIVILEGES ON . TO root@”%” [IDENTIFIED BY ‘windowsmysql’] WITH GRANT OPTION
直接使用root进行访问。
注意,我们在这里给root grant的密码跟root直接从后台登陆的密码并不一定一致。linuxmysql是在localhost上登录时root的密码,windowsmysql是从任意主机登录时的密码(或者你也可以针对不同的客户端给root分配不同的连接密码,比如192.168.1.102连接到数据库的root密码为123455,而192.168.1.104以root连接数据库时密码可以为54321等等),这个我们可以从mysql的user表中的数据得到验证。
mysql>use mysql;
mysql> select Host, User, PassWord from user;
+———————–+——+——————————+
| Host | User | PassWord |
+———————–+——+—————–+
| localhost | root | *0E2B5059346AC0140970837959E5F4B3BA8E96E0 |
| localhost.localdomain | root | *0E2B5059346AC0140970837959E5F4B3BA8E96E0 |
| 127.0.0.1 | root | *0E2B5059346AC0140970837959E5F4B3BA8E96E0 |
| % | root | *6C24E7AC61619C4631613121B51F419DAA626E5E |
| 192.168.1.102 | cme | *6C24E7AC61619C4631613121B51F419DAA626E5E |
+———————–+——+——————————————-+
我们能看到,虽然密码加密了,但是不同的Host还是有不同的密码的。
(2)root密码忘记后恢复。
这个只能在后台直接修改了,远程就不行了。
先停止数据库服务
service mysqld stop
然后启动msyql,跳过身份验证。
#/usr/local/mysql/bin/mysqld_safe –skip-grant-tables &
然后mysql -uroot登录就不需要输入密码了
mysql>update mysql.user set password=PASSWORD(‘nothing’) where (User=’root’) and (Host = ‘localhost’);
mysql>flush privileges;
mysql>exit;
注意:如果你不加上Host = “localhost”的话,就改了所有root的密码
即192.168.1.102登录mysql的密码也被改了,这个要慎重修改喔。
然后再次连接就OK了
#mysql -uroot -pnothing
正常登录了。

(2)

Posted in 运维相关 | mysql几个常用知识【2007-11-20 19:14:22】已关闭评论

sun880服务器安装sparc solaris9以及网络配置-[2006-11-22 15:31:29]

昨天下午进驻机房安装sparc Solaris9,目标机是一台sun880的服务器
4G内存,6个70G的硬盘。到刚才终于把网络配置好了,赶紧收藏一下经验!
记录一些关键点:
(1):机子启动后同时按 stop + a 这两个键,然后输入boot cdrom,会进入光盘安装模式,这个不知道就惨了。
(2):语言选择 Chinese-GBXXX,不要选chinese utfXXX之类的
(3):网络不要选nis,dns之类的,选择none
(4):网络设备选择eri0或者hme0,但是不要选择ge0,否则会遇到我们今天遇到的问题,后面再说。
(5):分区时,先让系统自己分,然后手动调整,但是记住/export/home要分最大的,剩下的空间都给它。如果多个磁盘不支持raid,就分成/export/home0 /export/home1 ==。
(6):流程 disk1(1/2 software) installing ->auto reboot->disk2(2/2 software)->disk3(language)
(7):安装完成
如果网络配置好但是却不通,就要检测启用的设备是否正确
我在安装时选择了ge0,但是怎么都ping不通内网
最后看帖子发现是设备选错了,修改如下
ifconfig ge0 down
ifconfig ge0 unplumb
ifconfig eri0 plumb
ifconfig eri0 up
…配置参数
但是默认的配置再Reboot后又会恢复,所以写个脚本让它开机自己修改
以我们的Solaris9 图形登陆方式为例
在/etc/rc3.d下建立一个文件S51network,注意你的机子不一定是这个目录这个文件,要根据具体情况进行判断。
内容为:
ifconfig ge0 down
ifconfig ge0 unplumb
ifconfig eri0 plumb
ifconfig eri0 up
ifconfig eri0 10.0.0.58 netmask 255.255.0.0
route add default 10.0.254.254
如果你想在开机时和关机时各执行不通的任务,那就加几句:
case “$1” in
‘start’)
开机做的事情
;;
‘stop’)
关机做的事情
;;
*)
其他的
;;
esac
exit 0
比较容易理解,这个就跟Linux的chkconfig的原理一样。
然后 reboot就行了
。。。。。
估计还要装gcc 和 glibc,有空再加上来吧。(瞌睡死了,阿米豆腐)

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控制论笔记1-20201106

系统可被控制的条件

1.被控制系统存在着多种发展的可能 – 可能性空间

例如鸡蛋可以发展为:1.鸡蛋,2.小鸡或者3.碎蛋。

2.被控制系统通过一定条件输入可以进入不同的空间,而不是不变。

例如水可以加热成为蒸汽,或者冷冻成为冰块。而火山虽然可能爆发或者不爆发,但是却没有办法来控制它的发展轨迹。
+ 控制系统的本质就是:选择存在可能性空间的事物,为其创造条件,使得事物向期望的方向发展

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郁离子29-《玄豹》


石羊先生谓郁离子曰:“呜呼,世有欲盖而彰,欲抑而扬,欲揜(同掩)其明而播其声者,不亦异乎?”

  郁离子喟(kui 四声)然叹曰:“子不见夫南山之玄豹乎?其始也绘绘耳,人莫之知也。雾雨七日不下食,以泽其毛而成其文。文成矣,而复欲隐,何其蚩也?是故县黎之玉,处顽石之中,而潜于幽谷之底,其寿可以与天地俱也:无故而舒其光,使人蝻而骇之,于是乎椎凿而扃鐍发矣。桂树之轮囷结樛,与拷枥奚异,而斧斤寻之,不惮阻远者何也?以其香之达也。故曰‘欲人之不见,莫若曶其明;欲人之不知,莫若喑其声。是故鹦鹉絷于能言,蜩蠠(蝉)获于善鸣;樗以恶而免割,蒌以苦而不烹。何不翳子之烨烨,而返子之冥冥乎?”

  石羊先生怅然久之,曰:“惜乎,予闻之晚也!”
峣峣者易折,皎皎者易污。木秀于林,风必摧之。行高于人,人必非之。
独立特性,锋芒毕露的人,容易遭到小人嫉妒,甚至引发灾祸。
那么在成就卓越与低调行事之间该如何平衡或者取舍呢?
事情:首先,事情的结果一定要好。这样合作伙伴,领导才能认可。
其次:不招致嫉妒或者非议,需要不招摇,合群。那就是要低调做人。
因此,建议的思路是:高调做事,追求最好结果。低调做人,多成就他人,表扬他人。

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密码保护:2020 年国庆节小哈尼靓照

这是一篇受密码保护的文章,您需要提供访问密码:

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《浪潮之巅》收尾

读这本《浪潮之巅》上下册,耗时8个月,始于2020年1月4号,终于2020年9月4号,第二本开始于2020年5月2号。

感受

先来谈谈感受,在读该书以前,对国外的公司知之甚少,只是听说过微软,谷歌,Facebook,亚马逊,Intel,诺基亚等公司,可是并不清楚其发展历史,荣辱兴衰等。觉得自己供职9年的阿里应该算是科技公司中的一座山峰吧。有时候还挺骄傲,或者窃喜吧,好歹自己在高科技、国际企业工作。
当读完了上册内容后,发现情况并不是那样,这个世界上有很多知名公司,其发展50年以上甚至百年,知名度享誉全球,并且有自己的核心技术,世界影响力等,比如 苹果,IBM,Intel,微软,谷歌,Facebook,仙童公司等等。每个公司都曾独领风骚过一些年份,随着社会进步和科技发展,有些公司落下高速发展的列车,没落或者消失,单并不代表他们不伟大;有些公司,如微软,Intel,3M等公司,不断转型,强盛至今。

思考

阿里巴巴已经发展了21年,同这些享誉全球的知名或者伟大公司比起来,还很年轻,或者说只是个孩提。所以,从历史的长河来看,对于阿里,未来可期,充满不确定,又充满机遇:
1. 我们是否走在创新的道路上?
从目前的状态看,并不是。电商学习Ebay, 支付学习PayPal, 云计算学习 谷歌+IBM/微软+AWS,而侧重学习亚马逊。我们是一个商业上比较成功的公司,但是在技术上并不领先。不过,模仿是学习的最好方式,也是创新的基础,近几年来,公司也在不断地加大创新和高科技人才的投入,希望未来5年,10年,20年能看到阿里公司向社会上贡献很多的创新技术。这样来看102年的企业真的不是吹牛的,相对于102年来说,21岁正是正当年轻。
2.我们会面临哪些挑战?
首先我觉得是技术挑战,随着US对中国企业如华为,中兴,TikTok等封锁打压,中国公司在基础技术方面不得不做更多的思考和储备,必须走创新这条路子,虽然道路艰险。正如吴军老师说的,伟大的公司和国家,不是建立在房市和股市上面的,而是建立在蒸汽机,电电力,计算机和智能技术之上的。所以,在操作系统,PC芯片,手机操作系统,甚至企业软件等方面,阿里,还华为,腾讯,还有其他企业,必须清醒的意识到自主创新的重要性,把命运掌握在自己的手里。
3.我们所处的位置和方向
当下已经可以清醒的意识到,BAT加华为等,已经属于上一代互联网公司了,他们部分开始变得臃肿,内部工作效率低下,官僚化或者僵化管理。而新兴的互联网公司,B站,小米,字节挑动,拼多多和滴滴等,他们的创始人成长于上一代互联网公司,具有天然的互联网思维,另外,公司新兴的业务模式,如更面向用户,不重度依赖于基础设施和生产行业,使得他们发展起来很轻松灵活,无负担。也更容器取得成功或者收获市场。身边的不少同事,在BAT工作超过10年后,开始转身进入新的互联网年轻公司,主动拥抱变化,拥抱新互联网。个人觉得,除了BAT的个人转型外,这些老牌互联网公司也会快速转型,相信5年后,阿里,腾讯会和现在大不一样,2025额这些公司,应该更开放,更公平自由,更叛逆。拥抱变化的企业才能活得更好,不主动求变的企业,很可能会被浪潮淘汰,或者变得更加臃肿,就如今天余杭区工业城死气沉沉的公司一样,失去了活力。

作为个人,也应不断学习新的技术,思想,改变思维方式,不断迭代,这样才能保证和浪潮一起前进。



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How to get better at the things you care about

Most of us go through life trying to do our best at whatever we do, whether it’s our job, family, school or anything else. I feel that way. I try my best. But some time ago, I came to a realization that I wasn’t getting much better at the things I cared most about, whether it was being a husband or a friend or a professional or teammate, and I wasn’t improving much at those things even though I was spending a lot of time working hard at them. I’ve since realized from conversations I’ve had and from research that this stagnation, despite hard work, turns out to be pretty common.

So I’d like to share with you some insights into why that is and what we can all do about it. What I’ve learned is that the most effective people and teams in any domain do something we can all emulate. They go through life deliberately alternating between two zones: the learning zone and the performance zone.

The learning zone is when our goal is to improve. Then we do activities designed for improvement, concentrating on what we haven’t mastered yet, which means we have to expect to make mistakes, knowing that we will learn from them. That is very different from what we do when we’re in our performance zone, which is when our goal is to do something as best as we can, to execute. Then we concentrate on what we have already mastered and we try to minimize mistakes.

Both of these zones should be part of our lives, but being clear about when we want to be in each of them, with what goal, focus and expectations, helps us better perform and better improve. The performance zone maximizes our immediate performance, while the learning zone maximizes our growth and our future performance. The reason many of us don’t improve much despite our hard work is that we tend to spend almost all of our time in the performance zone. This hinders our growth, and ironically, over the long term, also our performance.

So what does the learning zone look like? Take Demosthenes, a political leader and the greatest orator and lawyer in ancient Greece. To become great, he didn’t spend all his time just being an orator or a lawyer, which would be his performance zone. But instead, he did activities designed for improvement. Of course, he studied a lot. He studied law and philosophy with guidance from mentors, but he also realized that being a lawyer involved persuading other people, so he also studied great speeches and acting. To get rid of an odd habit he had of involuntarily lifting his shoulder, he practiced his speeches in front of a mirror, and he suspended a sword from the ceiling so that if he raised his shoulder, it would hurt.

(Laughter)

To speak more clearly despite a lisp, he went through his speeches with stones in his mouth. He built an underground room where he could practice without interruptions and not disturb other people. And since courts at the time were very noisy, he also practiced by the ocean, projecting his voice above the roar of the waves.

His activities in the learning zone were very different from his activities in court, his performance zone. In the learning zone, he did what Dr. Anders Ericsson calls deliberate practice. This involves breaking down abilities into component skills, being clear about what subskill we’re working to improve, like keeping our shoulders down, giving full concentration to a high level of challenge outside our comfort zone, just beyond what we can currently do, using frequent feedback with repetition and adjustments, and ideally engaging the guidance of a skilled coach, because activities designed for improvement are domain-specific, and great teachers and coaches know what those activities are and can also give us expert feedback. It is this type of practice in the learning zone which leads to substantial improvement, not just time on task performing. For example, research shows that after the first couple of years working in a profession, performance usually plateaus. This has been shown to be true in teaching, general medicine, nursing and other fields, and it happens because once we think we have become good enough, adequate, then we stop spending time in the learning zone. We focus all our time on just doing our job, performing, which turns out not to be a great way to improve. But the people who continue to spend time in the learning zone do continue to always improve. The best salespeople at least once a week do activities with the goal of improvement. They read to extend their knowledge, consult with colleagues or domain experts, try out new strategies, solicit feedback and reflect. The best chess players spend a lot of time not playing games of chess, which would be their performance zone, but trying to predict the moves grand masters made and analyzing them. Each of us has probably spent many, many, many hours typing on a computer without getting faster, but if we spent 10 to 20 minutes each day fully concentrating on typing 10 to 20 percent faster than our current reliable speed, we would get faster, especially if we also identified what mistakes we’re making and practiced typing those words. That’s deliberate practice.

In what other parts of our lives, perhaps that we care more about, are we working hard but not improving much because we’re always in the performance zone? Now, this is not to say that the performance zone has no value. It very much does. When I needed a knee surgery, I didn’t tell the surgeon, “Poke around in there and focus on what you don’t know.”

(Laughter)

“We’ll learn from your mistakes!” I looked for a surgeon who I felt would do a good job, and I wanted her to do a good job. Being in the performance zone allows us to get things done as best as we can. It can also be motivating, and it provides us with information to identify what to focus on next when we go back to the learning zone. So the way to high performance is to alternate between the learning zone and the performance zone, purposefully building our skills in the learning zone, then applying those skills in the performance zone.

When Beyoncé is on tour, during the concert, she’s in her performance zone, but every night when she gets back to the hotel room, she goes right back into her learning zone. She watches a video of the show that just ended. She identifies opportunities for improvement, for herself, her dancers and her camera staff. And the next morning, everyone receives pages of notes with what to adjust, which they then work on during the day before the next performance. It’s a spiral to ever-increasing capabilities, but we need to know when we seek to learn, and when we seek to perform, and while we want to spend time doing both, the more time we spend in the learning zone, the more we’ll improve.

So how can we spend more time in the learning zone? First, we must believe and understand that we can improve, what we call a growth mindset. Second, we must want to improve at that particular skill. There has to be a purpose we care about, because it takes time and effort. Third, we must have an idea about how to improve, what we can do to improve, not how I used to practice the guitar as a teenager, performing songs over and over again, but doing deliberate practice. And fourth, we must be in a low-stakes situation, because if mistakes are to be expected, then the consequence of making them must not be catastrophic, or even very significant. A tightrope walker doesn’t practice new tricks without a net underneath, and an athlete wouldn’t set out to first try a new move during a championship match.

One reason that in our lives we spend so much time in the performance zone is that our environments often are, unnecessarily, high stakes. We create social risks for one another, even in schools which are supposed to be all about learning, and I’m not talking about standardized tests. I mean that every minute of every day, many students in elementary schools through colleges feel that if they make a mistake, others will think less of them. No wonder they’re always stressed out and not taking the risks necessary for learning. But they learn that mistakes are undesirable inadvertently when teachers or parents are eager to hear just correct answers and reject mistakes rather than welcome and examine them to learn from them, or when we look for narrow responses rather than encourage more exploratory thinking that we can all learn from. When all homework or student work has a number or a letter on it, and counts towards a final grade, rather than being used for practice, mistakes, feedback and revision, we send the message that school is a performance zone.

The same is true in our workplaces. In the companies I consult with, I often see flawless execution cultures which leaders foster to encourage great work. But that leads employees to stay within what they know and not try new things, so companies struggle to innovate and improve, and they fall behind.

We can create more spaces for growth by starting conversations with one another about when we want to be in each zone. What do we want to get better at and how? And when do we want to execute and minimize mistakes? That way, we gain clarity about what success is, when, and how to best support one another.

But what if we find ourselves in a chronic high-stakes setting and we feel we can’t start those conversations yet? Then here are three things that we can still do as individuals. First, we can create low-stakes islands in an otherwise high-stakes sea. These are spaces where mistakes have little consequence. For example, we might find a mentor or a trusted colleague with whom we can exchange ideas or have vulnerable conversations or even role-play. Or we can ask for feedback-oriented meetings as projects progress. Or we can set aside time to read or watch videos or take online courses. Those are just some examples. Second, we can execute and perform as we’re expected, but then reflect on what we could do better next time, like Beyoncé does, and we can observe and emulate experts. The observation, reflection and adjustment is a learning zone. And finally, we can lead and lower the stakes for others by sharing what we want to get better at, by asking questions about what we don’t know, by soliciting feedback and by sharing our mistakes and what we’ve learned from them, so that others can feel safe to do the same.

Real confidence is about modeling ongoing learning. What if, instead of spending our lives doing, doing, doing, performing, performing, performing, we spent more time exploring, asking, listening, experimenting, reflecting, striving and becoming? What if we each always had something we were working to improve? What if we created more low-stakes islands and waters? And what if we got clear, within ourselves and with our teammates, about when we seek to learn and when we seek to perform, so that our efforts can become more consequential, our improvement never-ending and our best even better?

Thank you.

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